The New York Mets and Washington Nationals will meet on Sunday afternoon at Citi Field in a battle of NL East teams. Sunday’s game carries playoff implications for New York while offering Washington a chance to play spoiler against their division rivals. The Mets are battling for a Wild Card slot and will look to shake off their recent struggles to help them get into the postseason. Here, I break down this matchup and give you my Nationals vs Mets prediction for today.
Our Nationals vs Mets Pick
- Pick: Over 8.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Washington Nationals vs New York Mets
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 21, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Sean Manaea (Mets) vs Jake Irvin (Nationals)
- Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: WPIX and MASN2
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
The Mets will send out Sean Manaea, who sits at 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA. He has struggled to deliver consistent quality starts, giving up earned runs in virtually every outing. His strikeout numbers are respectable, but control and consistency have been issues for him. Jake Irvin is a workhorse for Washington but has had mixed results. He’s 8-13 with a 5.76 ERA, allowing a high number of home runs and baserunners. Both starters have been vulnerable to big innings, which suggests this game could get messy early if either team’s offense loosens up.
Recent team streaks
- The Mets had a two-game winning streak snapped with their loss to the Nats on Saturday. They have a one-game lead against the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Wild Card race.
- Washington snapped a five-game losing streak with a dramatic 11-inning win on Saturday.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Pete Alonso | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| James Wood | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Mets hold a 7-5 lead in the season series between these NL East rivals.
- This is the final game these teams will play against each other this season.
- Washington is 32-45 on the road for the season.
- New York is 49-31 on their home field.
Nationals vs Mets Model Projection
- Score Projection: Mets 7 – Nationals 4
- Win Probability: Mets 68%, Nationals 32%
Final Thoughts
Backing the over appears to be the most reliable play here. The Mets’ offense is deeper and more consistent. But both starting pitchers have their shortcomings going into this game and we should see both teams get on the scoreboard early and often in what should be an entertaining game from Queens today.
