The New York Mets will return to Citi Field on Saturday as they host the Washington Nationals. After a 12-6 romp over Washington in the series opener, the Mets are fighting for critical wins in the NL Wild Card race. The Nationals are out of playoff contention and simply looking to play spoiler. Here, I break down this NL East matchup and bring you my Mets vs Nationals prediction for today.
Our Nationals vs Mets Pick
- Pick: Mets -1.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Washington Nationals vs New York Mets
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 4:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Nolan McLean vs Cade Cavalli
- Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
- Nolan McLean has delivered dominant numbers for the Mets this season. He is 4-1 with a 1.19 ERA over 37.2 innings. He’s limited damage, permitted only 1 home run, and has a WHIP under 1.00. This kind of pitching against a weak Nationals offense is dangerous. His xFIP is somewhat higher than his ERA, but it still indicates above-average performance.
- Cade Cavalli has shown flashes, but his 4.76 ERA indicates that he struggles to keep runs off the board. He does generate a fair number of grounders, but facing power hitters like Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Lindor in full rhythm is a big ask.
Recent team streaks
- The Mets have won four of their last five games, including the series opener vs Washington, which gives them momentum. They lead in the race for the final NL Wild Card spot, with Arizona and Cincinnati both in pursuit. A loss here could put more pressure on them.
- The Nationals have lost five straight. Their pitching has been poor and defensive miscues have piled up. Their offense is spotty and will need to be better to steal this game.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Nolan McLean | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| James Wood | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Mets lead the season series over the Nationals 7-4.
- By reaching seven wins against the Nats this season, the Mets have clinched the season series.
- New York is 49-30 at home for the season.
- The Nationals are 31-45 on the road for the year.
Nationals vs Mets Model Projection
Score Projection: Nationals 2 – Mets 5
Win Probability: Mets 70%, Nationals 30%
Final Thoughts
The Mets appear to have almost all the advantages in this one. They have the superior starter, better recent form, and the stronger offense. The Nationals might scratch a few runs across, but the Mets should win and cover the runline as a favorite. If you’re looking to take props, a Soto home run or the over on McLean strikeouts offer value. The safer move is backing New York to cover the runline.
