The New York Mets are set to host the Washington Nationals at Citi Field on Friday. The Mets are in a tight playoff race going into the weekend and will look to take advantage of being at home against a team that is out of postseason contention. Here, I break down this NL East matchup and give you my Nationals vs Mets prediction for Friday’s game.
Our Nationals vs Mets Pick
- Pick: New York Mets -1.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Mets vs Washington Nationals
- Date & Time: Friday, September 19, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Brandon Sproat (Mets) vs Andrew Alvarez (Nationals)
- Stadium: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
- Broadcast: SNY (Mets), MASN2 (Nationals)
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Brandon Sproat enters this start for the Mets with a 0-1 record and a 2.25 ERA over 12 innings. He is coming off a strong performance, having delivered his first career scoreless outing in his last start. Sproat aims to build on this momentum and provide stability to the Mets’ rotation as they approach the postseason.
Andrew Alvarez is a promising rookie for the Nationals. He has a 1-0 record with a remarkable 1.15 ERA in 15.2 innings. Despite his impressive numbers, this will be his second career road start. His first was his shortest outing of the season, lasting just 4.2 innings. The Mets’ veteran lineup could drive up the pitch count of Alvarez and send him to the dugout early.
Recent Team Streaks
The Mets are entering this series on a high note, having secured a 6-1 victory over the San Diego Padres in their previous game. This win marked their first series victory since early September, providing a much-needed boost as they approach the final stretch of the season.
The Nationals have struggled throughout the season, currently holding a 62-91 record. Their pitching staff has been a significant concern, with the team posting the second-worst team ERA in baseball at 5.33. This ongoing issue has hindered their ability to remain competitive. They have lost four games in a row coming into this series opener.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Over 1.5 Hits |
| Juan Soto | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Mets hold a 6-4 lead in their season series against the Nationals.
- Washington has won the last two games between these teams going into today.
- New York is 23-23 against division opponents so far this season.
- The Nats are 18-28 against teams from the NL East.
Nationals vs Mets Model Projection
- Score Projection: Mets 6 – Nationals 3
- Win Probability: Mets 70%, Nationals 30%
Final Thoughts
The Mets enter this game with a clear advantage in both pitching and offensive firepower. While Andrew Alvarez has shown promise, his inexperience on the road could be a significant factor against a potent Mets lineup. With the Mets’ recent momentum and the Nationals’ ongoing struggles, New York is poised to secure a crucial victory in their playoff push. I recommend laying the runline with the Mets in this game.
