Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Pick – 6/12/2025

As the New York Mets host the Washington Nationals on June 12, 2025, the stakes are clear. The Mets, sitting at 44-24, are enjoying a strong season, while the Nationals, with a record of 30-37, are struggling. The Mets are currently 1st in the National League East, and their potent offense ranks 5th overall in MLB, showcasing their underlying talent despite a 13th place ranking in batting average.

In their last game, the Nationals fell to the Mets, continuing their disappointing performance. Kodai Senga is projected to take the mound for New York, boasting a solid 6-3 record and an impressive ERA of 1.59. Although his xFIP of 4.09 suggests some luck, he has shown he can dominate hitters, projecting to strike out 6.1 batters and allow just 2.4 earned runs on average. The Nationals will counter with Mike Soroka, who has a 3-3 record and a less favorable ERA of 4.86. Soroka's projections indicate he may struggle against the Mets' patient lineup, which ranks 4th in walks.

With the Mets as significant favorites and a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, the projections suggest a high-scoring affair. Given the Mets' superior pitching and hitting, they are well-positioned to capitalize on their home-field advantage and continue their winning ways against a struggling Nationals squad.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mike Soroka's fastball velocity has jumped 1.6 mph this season (93.6 mph) over where it was last year (92 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

In terms of his home runs, Jose Tena has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His 5.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 13.2.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Kodai Senga has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.9 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jeff McNeil has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 59 games (+12.09 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+10.09 Units / 16% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+10.95 Units / 44% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.01, New York Mets 4.89

• Date: June 12, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mike Soroka - Nationals
  • Kodai Senga - Mets

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