Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Pick – 6/11/2025

On June 11, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Washington Nationals for the second game in their series at Citi Field. The Mets, currently leading the National League East with a strong record of 43-24, are enjoying a fantastic season. In contrast, the Nationals sit at 30-36, struggling to find their footing. The Mets are fresh off a significant victory, showcasing their offensive prowess and solid pitching.

The Mets will send David Peterson to the mound, who boasts an impressive 2.80 ERA this season and has shown consistent performance with a 4-2 record over 12 starts. The projections suggest he will pitch well today, averaging 6.0 innings with only 2.1 earned runs allowed. However, he has some weaknesses, notably allowing an average of 5.5 hits and 1.7 walks. Fortunately for him, the Washington offense ranks only 19th in the league, making this a favorable matchup.

On the other hand, Jake Irvin is projected to start for the Nationals. His 4.02 ERA is above average, but with a higher xFIP of 4.55, he may be in for a tough outing against a potent Mets lineup that ranks 5th in MLB offense. Irvin's ability to limit walks could mitigate some of the Mets’ strengths, but he faces a daunting task against a lineup featuring players who have been hitting exceptionally well of late.

Betting odds heavily favor the Mets, with a moneyline of -255 and an implied total of 5.18 runs, suggesting they are expected to dominate. Conversely, the Nationals, at +215, are projected to struggle, with a low implied total of 3.32 runs. Given the disparity in records, team form, and pitching matchups, the Mets look well-positioned to continue their winning ways in this matchup.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin has recorded 18.1 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 92nd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Nathaniel Lowe is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Washington's 93.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #3 team in baseball this year by this standard.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

David Peterson's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (48% vs. 42.5% last season) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Typically, hitters like Brett Baty who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jake Irvin.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 38 of their last 66 games (+11.39 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 46 games (+8.09 Units / 15% ROI)
• James Wood has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 72% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.82, New York Mets 5.19

• Date: June 11, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • David Peterson - Mets

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.