Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 4/11/2025

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On April 11, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Washington Nationals at LoanDepot Park in what marks the first game of the series between these two National League East rivals. The Marlins enter this matchup with a record of 6-6, while the Nationals sit slightly behind at 5-7, struggling to find their footing this season. In their most recent outings, the Marlins enjoyed a commanding 5-0 victory, while the Nationals fell in a tightly contested 6-5 battle.

Starting for the Marlins is Edward Cabrera, a right-handed pitcher who is coming off a solid performance where he went 5 innings, allowing just 1 earned run. However, his projections for today suggest a meager 4.3 innings pitched, along with 1.8 earned runs allowed on average. Cabrera's numbers indicate he could face challenges, especially against a Nationals lineup that ranks as the 10th best in MLB offensively this season.

Mitchell Parker, the projected starter for the Nationals, has also had his share of ups and downs. Despite a stellar ERA of 0.73, advanced projections suggest that Parker may have been riding some good fortune, as his xFIP stands at a concerning 5.17. With the Marlins' offense ranking 19th overall, it appears they are susceptible to his low-strikeout style, which could play into his favor.

The betting odds place the Nationals as slight favorites with a moneyline of -125, forecasting an average implied team total of 4.14 runs compared to the Marlins' 3.86 runs. With both teams possessing below-average bullpens, this game could hinge on the starting pitchers' performances. The Marlins will look to capitalize on their recent win and lift themselves above the .500 mark, while the Nationals aim to shake off their losing streak and gain some momentum in the season.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker's 2189.2-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 16th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Typically, hitters like Josh Bell who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Edward Cabrera.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Washington Nationals bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Given that flyball pitchers hold a sizeable edge over flyball hitters, Edward Cabrera and his 47.2% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable spot in today's outing being matched up with 5 opposing FB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Derek Hill has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

In today's game, Derek Hill is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 33.6% rate (78th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• Derek Hill has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.25 Units / 42% ROI)

• Date: April 11, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.