Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Pick – 9/9/2025
The Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins will meet in the second game of a four-game series on Tuesday night. Washington crushed Miami in the opening game of this series from South Florida on Monday night. Both teams will be looking for more effective pitching in this contest. Here, I take a closer look at the pitching matchup and everything else you need to make an informed Nationals vs Marlins prediction.
Our Nationals vs Marlins Pick
- Pick: Over 8.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 9, 2025, 6:40 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Mitchell Parker vs Adam Mazur
- Stadium: loanDepot park, Miami, FL
- Broadcast: FanDuel Sports Florida, MASN2
Key Storylines
- Both offenses had a huge game in the first game of this series. The Nationals won 15-7 and both offenses will look to have more success in this contest.
- Neither of these teams are in position to fight for a playoff spot late in the season and they are playing for nothing but pride and the individual prospects of their careers at this stage of the year.
Pitching Matchup
Mitchell Parker, Nationals: Parker has struggled this year. He has gone 7-15 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The lefty’s strikeout rate is serviceable, but the combination of free passes and long balls has inflated his ERA. Miami has been inconsistent and a righty-heavy order in a big park is a friendlier landing spot for Parker than many NL venues.
Adam Mazur, Marlins: Adam Mazur is 0-2 with a 5.74 ERA for the Marlins this season. He has worked just 15.2 innings this season and has allowed 19 hits in that span. The Marlins could use a quality start from him after the bullpen of the Marlins was torched by the Nats last night.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Nationals have won three games in a row and four of their last five.
- Miami has dropped four of its last five games going into this contest. All of those games were against division opponents.
Best Player Props
| Category | Player | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Home run | James Wood | Over 0.5 |
| Total bases | C.J. Abrams | Over 1.5 |
| Total bases | Joey Wiemer | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The season series between these teams is tied 5-5 heading into this game.
- Washington has won four games in a row between the Nats and Marlins.
- The Marlins are 21-21 against NL East opponents this season.
- Washington is 18-27 against division rivals in 2025.
Nationals vs Marlins Model Projection
Score Projection: Nationals 5, Marlins 6
Win Probability: Nationals 43%, Marlins 57%
Final Thoughts
I think that we are in for a high-scoring game betwen the Nationals and Marlins on Tuesday night. Both of these teams have struggling starting pitchers on the mound in this game. That should lead to both offenses performing well once again. We may not see another 22-run game between these squads, but I am happy to take the over here nonetheless.
