Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Pick – 4/13/2025

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins will host the Washington Nationals on April 13, 2025, in the third game of their series. The Marlins are currently sitting at a .500 record of 7-7, while the Nationals are struggling at 6-8. In their last matchup on April 12, the Marlins edged out the Nationals with a narrow 7-6 victory, adding to the Nationals' woes as they look to turn their season around.

On the mound, Miami is projected to start Cal Quantrill, who has had an average season thus far with a 6.00 ERA and a Power Ranking of 269th out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating he has performed poorly relative to his peers. Still, Quantrill is a high-groundball pitcher, which could play to his advantage against the Nationals' powerful lineup, ranked 6th in home runs this season with 18.

Opposing him is Washington's MacKenzie Gore, a left-handed pitcher boasting an impressive 2.65 ERA and a Power Ranking of 67th. Gore has been a standout for the Nationals, and while he has also faced some luck challenges, his projections suggest he will continue to perform well. Additionally, Gore's last start on April 7 saw him go 6 innings with only 2 earned runs, solidifying his status as a key player for the Nationals.

Despite the Nationals' offensive ranking of 10th in MLB, their bullpen ranks 28th, which could be a critical factor if the game is close. The projections indicate a total of 8.0 runs for this matchup, reflecting a competitive nature between the two teams. With the Marlins being an underdog at +120, this matchup presents a compelling opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on potential value given the Nationals' recent struggles.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #22 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Alex Call has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .425 mark is significantly inflated relative to his .333 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Washington Nationals have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Paul DeJong, Jose Tena).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Cal Quantrill has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 12% more often this season (71.8%) than he did last season (59.8%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jonah Bride is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen ranks as the worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+6.80 Units / 28% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.87, Miami Marlins 4.52

• Date: April 13, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Cal Quantrill - Marlins

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