Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/17/2024

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Overview

• Date: April 17, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers
• Run Line: Nationals 1.5 -110, Dodgers -1.5 -110
• Money Line: Nationals 200, Dodgers -235
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 32%
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 68%

Projected Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 23.25%
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 76.75%

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game Preview & Prediction

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals are set to face off on April 17, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. As the home team, the Dodgers have the advantage, while the Nationals will be looking to turn their season around on the road. This National League matchup promises an exciting showdown between two teams with different records this season.

The Dodgers have been having a great season so far, boasting a 12-8 record. They are currently ranked as the 4th best team in MLB based on underlying talent. Their offense has been impressive, ranking 2nd in home runs. In their last game, the Dodgers played against an unknown opponent, showcasing their offensive prowess. Max Muncy has been their standout hitter over the past week, with 5 hits, 5 runs, 6 RBIs, and 3 home runs.

On the other hand, the Nationals have been struggling this season with a 7-10 record. Their offense ranks 29th in team home runs, but they have shown improvement in team batting average, ranking 6th in MLB. Jesse Winker has been their best hitter recently, with 8 hits, 4 runs, 1 home run, and 2 stolen bases over the past week.

Pitching will play a crucial role in this game. The Dodgers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has a 4.50 ERA this season. Despite this, his peripheral indicator, the xFIP, suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Yamamoto is known for his high strikeout rate and groundball tendencies.

Facing Yamamoto will be Nationals right-handed pitcher Jake Irvin, who has a 4.24 ERA. Similar to Yamamoto, Irvin's xFIP indicates that he has also been unlucky and should perform better in the future. However, Irvin's strikeout rate and innings pitched projection are lower than Yamamoto's, which could give the Dodgers an advantage.

The Dodgers have a strong bullpen, ranked 4th in MLB according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X. In contrast, the Nationals' bullpen is ranked last. This could potentially be a key factor in the outcome of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Dodgers are the clear betting favorites with a high implied win probability of 68%. However, THE BAT X projects an even greater win probability for the Dodgers at 77%. This suggests that there may be value in betting on the Dodgers.

The game total for this matchup is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game. The Dodgers have a high implied team total of 5.40 runs, while the Nationals are projected to score 3.66 runs on average.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Gallo in the 0th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Washington Nationals bullpen ranks as the worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a mean projection of 16.9 outs in today's matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Max Muncy is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

James Outman pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 80 of their last 141 games (+21.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 74 games (+18.25 Units / 24% ROI)

Nationals vs Dodgers Prediction: Nationals 3.66 - Dodgers 6.51

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