Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction – 6/22/2025

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face the Washington Nationals on June 22, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams. The Dodgers, who boast a strong record of 47-31 this season and the best offense in MLB, are looking to maintain their momentum against a struggling Nationals squad, currently sitting at 32-45. With Shohei Ohtani projected to start, the Dodgers will look for a win today to solidify their position in the National League.

Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers' right-handed pitcher, is considered an elite arm, ranking 10th in MLB according to advanced statistics. However, his performance this year has been underwhelming, with an ERA of 9.00 and just one appearance out of the bullpen. He is projected to pitch around 3.2 innings today but has struggled with both walks and strikeouts, which could benefit the Nationals' offense, ranked 22nd overall.

On the other side, the Nationals will counter with Mike Soroka, who holds a record of 3-5 and an ERA of 5.06. His high-groundball approach could mitigate some of the Dodgers' power, given the team’s reliance on home runs—ranking 1st in MLB with 119 homers this season. However, Soroka’s control has been solid, and facing a patient Dodgers lineup that walks frequently might prove challenging for him.

With a projected game total of 9.5 runs, expectations are high for offensive fireworks, but the Dodgers' elite rankings across various metrics make them the favorites for this matchup.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mike Soroka's 93.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.7-mph increase from last season's 92-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Keibert Ruiz has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (72% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Ranking lowest in MLB this year, Washington Nationals bats jointly have notched a 8.3° launch angle (an advanced metric to measure the ability to lift the ball for power).

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Shohei Ohtani to be on a bit of a short leash in this game, projecting a maximum of 61 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen projects as the best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 51 games (+11.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Brady House has hit the Singles Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.95 Units / 17% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.76, Los Angeles Dodgers 6.53

• Date: June 22, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mike Soroka - Nationals
  • Shohei Ohtani - Dodgers

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