Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction – 6/21/2025

The Los Angeles Dodgers, currently holding a solid 47-30 record, look to build on their recent success as they host the Washington Nationals, who sit at 31-45. This matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions, with the Dodgers boasting the best offense in MLB, while the Nationals rank 21st. The Dodgers are also coming off an impressive victory, showcasing their offensive prowess.

In this National League showdown, the Dodgers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Dustin May, who has had a somewhat inconsistent year with a 4-4 record and an average ERA of 4.46. May's ability to strike out batters has been below average, projected to strike out just 4.4 batters today. However, he faces a Nationals offense that struggles with patience, ranking 6th least in walks. This could play to May's advantage, as he tends to walk a high percentage of batters (9.5 BB%).

On the other side, the Nationals will send Jake Irvin to the mound. Irvin, who has a better record at 5-3, has an ERA of 4.23, but his 5.24 xERA suggests he may be due for a downturn. He projects to pitch poorly today, allowing 3.8 earned runs and 6.1 hits on average, which could spell trouble against a Dodgers lineup that excels in power, leading the league in home runs.

With the Dodgers' offense ranked 1st in batting average and home runs, they are expected to capitalize on Irvin’s shortcomings. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a likely high-scoring affair. The Dodgers are significant favorites with a moneyline of -275, reflecting their strong position in both the matchup and the standings.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin has tallied 17.9 outs per game per started this year, placing in the 92nd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Typically, hitters like Josh Bell who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Dustin May.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Washington's 8.3° launch angle (a reliable metric to measure the ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most groundball-inducing in MLB this year: #30 overall.

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

As a result of his huge platoon split, Dustin May meets a tough challenge being matched up with 7 batters in the projected lineup of opposing handedness in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In the last 7 days, Freddie Freeman's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 games (+10.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+10.02 Units / 16% ROI)
• Andy Pages has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+5.50 Units / 55% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.46, Los Angeles Dodgers 6.46

• Date: June 21, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Dustin May - Dodgers

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