Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 6/20/2025

The Los Angeles Dodgers (46-29) are set to host the Washington Nationals (31-44) at Dodger Stadium on June 20, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. The Dodgers are enjoying a strong season, currently sitting at the top of the National League, while the Nationals are struggling significantly.

The Dodgers boast the best offense in MLB, ranking 1st in team batting average and home runs. This offensive firepower will be crucial as they face off against MacKenzie Gore, who has had a decent season but holds a 3-6 record with a 2.89 ERA.

Clayton Kershaw is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers. Although he has a solid 2-0 record this year, his 3.25 ERA suggests he may have been a bit lucky, as indicated by his 4.33 xFIP. Kershaw's low strikeout rate could be a concern against the Nationals, who have been relatively low-strikeout, making it harder for him to capitalize on his strengths. The projections indicate that Kershaw is expected to allow 2.3 earned runs today, which is considered good.

On the other hand, Gore's projections indicate he may struggle against the Dodgers' powerful lineup, especially given his tendency to allow fly balls. With the Dodgers' impressive home run tally, this matchup could favor the home team significantly.

As the Dodgers are favored with a moneyline of -195, they have an implied team total of 4.90 runs, while the Nationals sit at just 3.60 runs. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair. With the Dodgers' offensive prowess and Kershaw on the mound, they are expected to capitalize on the Nationals' struggles.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. MacKenzie Gore has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 5% more often this year (49.7%) than he did last season (44.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Brady House is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Washington's 93.3-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #5 offense in the game this year by this stat.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Clayton Kershaw's 88.5-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 4th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Will Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 28 games at home (+12.35 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 37 games (+11.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Enrique Hernandez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 65% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.13, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.46

• Date: June 20, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers

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