Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels Pick – 6/29/2025

The Los Angeles Angels will host the Washington Nationals on June 29, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Angels sitting at 41-41 and the Nationals at 34-49. The Angels have shown some offensive firepower, ranking 3rd in MLB with 124 home runs, but their overall offense ranks only 22nd, indicating inconsistency. Meanwhile, the Nationals have a slightly better overall ranking at 20th but still face challenges, particularly with their pitching.

In their last game, the Nationals fell to the Angels, adding to their woes as they continue to search for a winning formula. Jack Kochanowicz, projected to start for the Angels, has had a rough year with a 3-8 record and an ERA of 5.49. However, his advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, with a 4.73 xFIP indicating potential for better performance. Kochanowicz is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Nationals lineup that is also not known for its ability to capitalize on strikeouts, potentially giving him an edge.

On the other side, Mitchell Parker will take the mound for the Nationals. Parker's 5-8 record and 4.59 ERA show he has been somewhat effective, but he faces a tough challenge against a powerful Angels lineup. His low strikeout rate may play into the hands of the Angels, who thrive on power.

With a total set at 10.0 runs, the game is expected to be high-scoring, and the Angels' implied team total of 5.29 runs reflects confidence in their ability to produce. Given the circumstances and the Angels’ home advantage, they may emerge as the favorites, especially considering their previous win against the Nationals.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker's higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (55 compared to 48.6% last year) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

James Wood has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.8-mph average to last season's 96.6-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Washington Nationals have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Adams, James Wood, Brady House).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Among all starting pitchers, Jack Kochanowicz's fastball velocity of 95 mph grades out in the 80th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Typically, batters like Mike Trout who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Mitchell Parker.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games (+14.90 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• James Wood has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+9.20 Units / 25% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.74, Los Angeles Angels 5.14

• Date: June 29, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.