Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels Pick – 6/28/2025

The June 28, 2025, matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and the Washington Nationals at Angel Stadium is shaping up to be an intriguing contest, especially following the Nationals' win over the Angels last night. The Angels currently sit at 40-41, with the Nationals trailing at 34-48, reflecting their struggles this season.

In this interleague matchup, the Angels are projected to start Kyle Hendricks, who has had a rough season, ranked as the 244th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Hendricks has a Win/Loss record of 5-6 and an ERA of 4.83, indicating he has had his fair share of struggles on the mound. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings today, allowing 3 earned runs on average, but his below-average strikeout rate (15.7 K%) could present problems against a Nationals offense that strikes out infrequently.

Opposing him will be Mike Soroka, who comes in with a stronger reputation as the 58th best starter. With a 3-5 record and a 5.06 ERA, Soroka has the potential to be effective today, projecting to allow only 2.4 earned runs over 5.2 innings. His high strikeout rate of 26.5 K% could be an advantage against the Angels' offense, which ranks 2nd in the league for most strikeouts.

Despite their individual struggles, the Angels boast a powerful lineup, ranking 4th in MLB for home runs, which could spell trouble for Soroka, especially given his propensity to allow fly balls. The Angels' projected team total sits at an impressive 4.97 runs, suggesting confidence in their offensive capabilities. Meanwhile, the Nationals, while ranking a modest 20th in MLB in offense, have found success in recent games, which could make for a close encounter.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mike Soroka's 93.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.7-mph rise from last season's 92-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Riley Adams has big-time HR ability (75th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (32.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Kyle Hendricks doesn't generate many whiffs (4th percentile K%) — great news for Adams.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Washington Nationals have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Brady House, Riley Adams).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Kyle Hendricks is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #10 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

LaMonte Wade Jr. is likely to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 47 games (+13.05 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.50 Units / 36% ROI)
• Nolan Schanuel has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+19.10 Units / 239% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.83, Los Angeles Angels 4.37

• Date: June 28, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mike Soroka - Nationals
  • Kyle Hendricks - Angels

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