Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros Prediction – 7/28/2025
The Houston Astros enter Monday’s game against the Washington Nationals at Daikin Park with a strong advantage on paper. But the Astros had an advantage on paper against the Athletics before getting swept over the last four games. Houston will look to bounce back but will know that they can’t afford to take anything for granted tonight. Continue reading to get my Nationals vs Astros prediction for Monday night in Texas.
Our Nationals vs Astros Pick
- Pick: Houston Astros -1.5
- Confidence: 4 stars
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros
- Date & Time: Monday, July 28, 2025, 8:10 PM EDT
- Starting Pitchers: Brad Lord (2-5, 3.39 ERA) vs Framber Valdez (11-4, 2.67 ERA)
- Stadium: Daikin Park, Houston, TX
- Broadcast: MASN 2, Space City Home Network
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Framber Valdez is the Astros’ ace. He has an impressive 11-4 record with a 2.67 ERA and 129 strikeouts. Valdez has been a consistent performer for Houston and will look to remain just that in this game. Brad Lord of the Nationals holds a 2-5 record with a 3.39 ERA. Lord has shown flashes of potential. But he faces a tough task against one of the league’s top pitchers.
Key Players
- Washington Nationals: James Wood (.263 AVG, 24 HR, 70 RBI), CJ Abrams (.275 AVG, .340 OBP, .475 SLG)
- Houston Astros: Jeremy Peña (.322 AVG, .378 OBP, .489 SLG), Isaac Paredes (19 HR, .259 AVG, 50 RBI)
Recent Team Streaks
- Washington Nationals: 5-5 in their last 10 games
- Houston Astros: 4-6 in their last 10 games
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | Over 7.5 strikeouts |
| James Wood | Over 0.5 home runs |
| Jeremy Peña | Over 0.5 stolen bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first of three meetings between these teams for this season.
- Washington is 22-31 on the road this year.
- Houston is 33-23 at home despite losing four straight to the A’s.
Nationals vs Astros Model Projection
- Score Projection: Nationals 3 – Astros 5
- Win Probability: Astros 60%, Nationals 40%
Final Thoughts
This game feels like the ideal bounce-back spot for the Houston Astros. They have their best pitcher on the mound and should be able to generate enough runs to help Valdez get a win here. I will lay the runline with Houston in this game as they will aim to stop their recent slide.
