Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/12/2024

Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: June 12, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Reese Olson - Tigers

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

On June 12, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will host the Washington Nationals at Comerica Park for the second game of their interleague series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Tigers posting a 32-34 record and the Nationals close behind at 31-35. The Tigers are projected to start right-hander Reese Olson, who has been solid despite his 1-7 record, boasting a 3.43 ERA over 12 starts. Olson's advanced metrics rank him as the 62nd best starting pitcher in baseball, making him above average.

The Nationals will counter with Jake Irvin, another right-hander, who has also posted strong traditional metrics with a 3.12 ERA and a 4-5 record over 13 starts. However, advanced metrics like SIERA (3.68) and xERA (3.83) suggest that Irvin has been somewhat lucky this season and may be due for regression.

Offensively, both teams have significant weaknesses. The Tigers rank 25th in overall offense, 24th in batting average, 24th in home runs, and 29th in stolen bases. The Nationals aren't much better, with a 26th ranked offense, 20th in batting average, and 28th in home runs. However, Washington does excel in stolen bases, ranking 1st in the league.

From a bullpen perspective, Detroit has an edge, ranking 14th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings compared to Washington's 25th. This could be a crucial factor in what is projected to be a low-scoring game, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Detroit a slight edge with a projected team total of 3.97 runs compared to Washington's 3.53. With implied win probabilities of 55% for the Tigers and 45% for the Nationals, the betting markets expect a close contest.

The Tigers are riding the hot bat of Justyn-Henry Malloy, who has posted a .944 OPS over the last week, while the Nationals' Nick Senzel has been their standout, boasting a 1.021 OPS in the same period. Both pitchers will need to navigate these threats carefully to keep their teams in contention.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Recording 93.1 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Jake Irvin ranks in the 80th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Eddie Rosario has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Lane Thomas pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 86th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Akil Baddoo has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Detroit Tigers have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Justyn-Henry Malloy, Jake Rogers, Riley Greene).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 33 games (+13.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 65 games (+12.18 Units / 14% ROI)
• Matt Vierling has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+7.00 Units / 26% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.92 vs Detroit Tigers 4.54

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