Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Prediction & Picks – 6/21/2024

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: June 21, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • DJ Herz - Nationals
  • Dakota Hudson - Rockies

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Colorado Rockies gear up to host the Washington Nationals on June 21, 2024, fans can expect an intriguing matchup at Coors Field, a venue known for producing high-scoring games. Both teams have had their ups and downs this season, but the scales seem to tip slightly in favor of the Nationals.

The Rockies are enduring a tough year, sitting at 26-49, and are projected to start right-hander Dakota Hudson. Hudson, ranked as the 264th best starting pitcher in MLB, has struggled mightily with a 2-9 record and a 4.89 ERA. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, doesn’t expect much from him, projecting 5.4 innings pitched with 3.0 earned runs, 6.5 hits, and just 2.3 strikeouts. This makes for a concerning outlook, especially against any team with a decent offense.

Speaking of the offense, the Rockies are decidedly average this season. They rank 16th in overall offensive production and 9th in team batting average, but their power numbers are lackluster, sitting 25th in home runs. On the bright side, Charlie Blackmon has been on a tear recently, hitting .417 with a 1.450 OPS over his last four games.

On the flip side, the Nationals come in with a 36-38 record, performing averagely this season. They'll send left-hander DJ Herz to the mound, who has shown flashes of brilliance in his limited starts. Herz boasts a solid 3.77 ERA but an even more impressive 2.96 xFIP, indicating he's been somewhat unlucky. Herz faces a Rockies lineup that is prone to strikeouts (5th most in MLB), which could play into his hands given his high strikeout rate (35.0% this year).

The Nationals' offense, while ranked 25th overall, has been exceptional in terms of stolen bases, ranking 3rd in MLB. This could be a key factor against a Rockies bullpen that is ranked 22nd in the advanced-stat Power Rankings. Jesse Winker has been leading the charge for Washington, hitting .467 with a 1.433 OPS and 2 home runs over his last five games.

With a projected total of 11.0 runs, this game is expected to be a high-scoring affair, reflecting the offensive quirks of Coors Field. Betting markets have set the Nationals as slight favorites with an implied win probability of 52%, suggesting a competitive game where any slight edge could be crucial.

In summation, while both teams have their weaknesses, the pitching matchup seems to slightly favor the Nationals, especially considering Herz's potential to dominate a strikeout-prone Rockies lineup. This could be a tight contest, but expect Washington to leverage their edges and eke out a win.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. DJ Herz has used his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 55.3% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Eddie Rosario has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Among every team today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Colorado Rockies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Jones has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Colorado Rockies will score 5.78 runs on average in this game: the most of all teams playing today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 39 games (+11.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 70 games (+13.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+12.65 Units / 54% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 5.47 vs Colorado Rockies 5.78

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