Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Pick – 4/19/2025

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies will host the Washington Nationals on April 19, 2025, at Coors Field for the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Rockies sitting at 3-15 and the Nationals at 7-12. The Rockies' offense ranks as the 25th best in MLB, while the Nationals are slightly better at 21st. This matchup is critical for both teams as they look to gain momentum.

Chase Dollander is projected to start for the Rockies, bringing a 1-1 record and a 5.06 ERA into the game. Despite a rocky ERA, his 3.29 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, and he has the potential to improve. However, he faces a challenge against the Nationals, who have a low-strikeout offense, which may limit Dollander's ability to capitalize on his high strikeout rate of 29.6%. On the flip side, MacKenzie Gore is set to pitch for Washington, boasting a solid 3.52 ERA and a higher strikeout rate of 33.7%. Gore's ability to induce strikeouts could be crucial, especially against a Rockies offense that ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts.

Betting markets indicate a close contest, with the Rockies at +110 and the Nationals at -130. The projections suggest that the Rockies could score around 4.29 runs, while the Nationals are expected to tally about 4.71 runs. Given their offensive rankings and recent performances, this matchup shapes up to be a crucial opportunity for the Rockies to turn their season around against a struggling Nationals bullpen ranked 30th in MLB.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

As a result of his large reverse platoon split, MacKenzie Gore will hold the advantage squaring off against 7 batters in the projected batting order who bat from the other side today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Amed Rosario has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen grades out as the worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Kyle Farmer's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 90.3-mph figure last year has dropped to 85.1-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Colorado Rockies will tally 5.08 runs on average in this matchup: the 5th-most of all teams in action today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 16 games (+0.95 Units / 5% ROI)
• Sean Bouchard has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+6.95 Units / 24% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 5.33, Colorado Rockies 5.08

• Date: April 19, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Chase Dollander - Rockies

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