Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 5/3/2025

Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

On May 3, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Washington Nationals at Great American Ball Park for the second game of their series. The Reds enter the game with an 18-15 record, showcasing an above-average performance this season, while the Nationals struggle at 14-19, marking a tough campaign thus far. Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo, a left-handed pitcher with a solid 2.25 ERA, is projected to take the mound, aiming to continue his strong showing after previously pitching a complete game shutout. In contrast, Washington's Trevor Williams, who has a dismal 5.70 ERA, will look to turn his luck around.

The Reds' offense ranks 10th in MLB and boasts a solid batting average, with their best hitter performing well lately—hitting .462 over the past week with 5 RBIs. Meanwhile, the Nationals sit at 18th in the league, with their best hitter contributing less significantly, which reflects their struggles at the plate. The projections indicate that Cincinnati should be able to exploit Washington's weaknesses, especially considering the Reds are favored with a high implied team total of 4.82 runs.

Defensively, the Reds have an average bullpen ranked 18th, while the Nationals' bullpen is rated as the 24th worst, which could further tip the scales in favor of Cincinnati. With Lodolo’s potential to dominate and the Reds' strong offensive metrics against a struggling opponent, this matchup shapes up favorably for Cincinnati as they seek to build on their momentum and solidify their position in the standings.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Trevor Williams is an extreme flyball pitcher (36% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue among all major league parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Keibert Ruiz has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (49.9% vs. 43.7% last season) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jake Fraley has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Projected catcher Jose Trevino projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games (+4.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• Matt McLain has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.35 Units / 71% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.78, Cincinnati Reds 4.86

• Date: May 3, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

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