Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 5/2/2025

Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Washington Nationals on May 2, 2025, at Great American Ball Park, both teams are looking to capitalize on their respective seasons. The Reds, sitting at 17-15 and displaying signs of an above-average season, have the edge in the matchup. In contrast, the Nationals are struggling at 14-18, indicating a challenging year thus far.

The Reds' ace, Hunter Greene, is set to take the mound today. He comes into this matchup boasting a Win/Loss record of 3-2 and a stellar ERA of 2.70. Greene ranks as the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his potential to dominate against the Nationals' below-average offense. While Greene's xFIP of 3.44 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, he projects to pitch an average of 5.8 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, and striking out an impressive 6.9 batters per outing.

On the other hand, the Nationals are set to start Mitchell Parker, who holds a 3-1 record with an impressive ERA of 2.65. However, his xFIP of 5.16 raises concerns, as it indicates he may regress moving forward. Parker's projected performance includes pitching 5.3 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, and striking out just 4.1 batters, which could be problematic against a Reds lineup that ranks 12th overall in MLB.

Given the Reds' strong implied team total of 4.74 runs, they remain the betting favorites at -165, while the Nationals’ struggles make them a tougher bet at +145. With the Reds looking to continue their positive trend and the Nationals searching for consistency, this game presents an intriguing clash of pitching and offense in the National League.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker has relied on his curveball 5.3% less often this year (17.3%) than he did last year (22.6%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

This season, James Wood has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 100.2 mph compared to last year's 96.6 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Washington Nationals offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 10th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene's 98.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1-mph jump from last year's 97.6-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Batters such as Elly De La Cruz with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Mitchell Parker who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Cincinnati's 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball: #27 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games (+3.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jose Tena has hit the Hits Under in his last 4 away games (+4.80 Units / 87% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.62, Cincinnati Reds 4.91

• Date: May 2, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Hunter Greene - Reds

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.