Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction & Picks 9/22/2024

• Date: September 22, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals face off at Wrigley Field on September 22, 2024, the Cubs find themselves with a slight edge in the standings, holding a 79-76 record. Although they are having an average season, they remain in the hunt for a postseason berth. Meanwhile, the Nationals, with a 69-86 record, are not contending for the playoffs and are looking to finish the season on a positive note. In their last meeting on September 21, the Nationals claimed a 5-1 victory over the Cubs, adding an interesting twist to this series finale.

The Cubs will send Shota Imanaga to the mound, who has been a key contributor with a 14-3 record and an impressive 3.03 ERA. Ranked 71st among starting pitchers, Imanaga's performance has been above average, although his xFIP of 3.65 suggests some luck has been involved. Imanaga is projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out six batters on average. His ability to limit walks could be crucial against a Nationals lineup that ranks 6th in fewest walks drawn.

On the other side, the Nationals will counter with Jake Irvin, whose 10-12 record and 4.07 ERA indicate a challenging season. The projections are not favorable for Irvin, anticipating 4.9 innings pitched with three earned runs allowed. Despite his solid control, he may struggle against the Cubs' 6th-ranked patient offense in drawing walks.

Offensively, the Cubs boast the 13th-best lineup, led by Ian Happ, while the Nationals' offense ranks 23rd. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, views the Cubs as a significant favorite, projecting them to score 5.36 runs compared to the Nationals' 3.85. With the Cubs' playoff hopes still alive, this matchup could be pivotal as they aim to bounce back from their previous loss and keep their postseason dreams alive.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.8 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Jose Tena usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The weakest projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The Washington Nationals have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Patrick Wisdom has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (54% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs' bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 66 games at home (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 82 of their last 148 games (+6.45 Units / 3% ROI)
• Dylan Crews has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.20 Units / 37% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.85 vs Chicago Cubs 5.36

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.