Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 9/6/2025
Saturday’s second game of the series between the Nationals and Cubs sets up as a classic daytime Wrigley test with a clear edge on the mound for the home side. Chicago lines up veteran lefty Matthew Boyd, who has been one of the National League’s most effective starters all summer, against Washington right-hander Brad Lord. Early numbers point to Chicago as a sizable favorite. Here, you can find my Nationals vs Cubs prediction for Saturday afternoon.
Our Nationals vs Cubs Pick
- Pick: Cubs -1.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Teams: Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 6, 2025, 2:20 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Brad Lord vs Matthew Boyd
- Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: Marquee Sports Network, MASN2
Key Storylines
- Boyd’s form has been outstanding. Multiple recent 7-plus inning gems and an ERA under 3.00 with a WHIP near 1.05 give Chicago a clear pitching edge.
- Washington just snapped out of a skid by sweeping Miami but lost the opening game of this series on Friday.
- The Cubs have been a top-10 offense against right-handed pitching this season with a team batting average in the mid-.250s and an OPS north of .750 versus righties.
- Washington has struggled against left-handed pitching coming into this game.
Pitching Outlook
Matthew Boyd enters Saturday with a record of 12-7, sub-3.00 ERA, and a 1.07 WHIP. Recent outings include seven scoreless with eight strikeouts at Wrigley and a run of starts limiting homers. His four-seam and slider mix has played exceptionally well in day conditions at home, and he has pounded the zone with fewer free passes as the season has progressed. Washington’s lefty bats have tended to run into ground-ball contact against quality left-handers, and Boyd’s recent efficiency hints at 6 to 7 quality innings if his pitch count stays in line.
Brad Lord has shown a capable fastball from a lower slot and can miss bats. But recent volatility included a rough outing against Tampa Bay that inflated his ERA. When ahead in counts, Lord’s fastball can help him put away batters, yet he has been hurt when his command lapses. Chicago will try to force deeper counts and elevate Lord’s pitch totals by the fourth or fifth inning.
Key Players
- James Wood, WSH: 27 HR, emerging middle-order force who just homered again this week.
- Seiya Suzuki, CHC: 27 HR, 89 RBI, having a strong second half with gap power and improved chase rates.
- Kyle Tucker, CHC: OPS over .900 since joining Chicago
Best Player Props
| Player | Market | Suggested Line |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Seiya Suzuki | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Kyle Tucker | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Chicago leads the season series 3-1 over the Nationals.
- The Cubs are 3-1 on the runline in this season series.
Nationals vs Cubs Model Projection
Score Projection: Nationals 2 – Cubs 5
Win Probability: Nationals 32% – Cubs 68%
Final Thoughts
Matthew Boyd’s command profile, home form, and ability to avoid barrels fit neatly against a Washington lineup that has scuffled against left-handed pitching. Brad Lord’s development has produced encouraging stretches, but Chicago’s patience and depth from the right-handed batter’s box should tilt this contest in favor of the home club. My recommendation is to bet the Cubs -1.5 at a reasonable price.
