Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick & Preview – 9/21/2024

• Date: September 21, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals prepare to face off at Wrigley Field on September 21, 2024, the Cubs find themselves in a favorable position. With a record of 79-75, they are having a solid, albeit average, season, while the Nationals are struggling at 68-86. The Cubs are still in the hunt for a postseason berth, making this National League matchup crucial for their playoff aspirations.

The Cubs are projected to start Kyle Hendricks, a right-hander whose season has been marred by bad luck, as indicated by his 6.25 ERA compared to a much better 4.50 xFIP. Despite his struggles, Hendricks has the potential to bounce back. Meanwhile, the Nationals will counter with lefty MacKenzie Gore, who has shown flashes of being an average pitcher with a 4.17 ERA and a more promising 3.62 FIP.

Offensively, the Cubs hold the edge, ranking 12th in MLB, while the Nationals lag behind at 23rd. The Cubs' lineup, powered by players like Mike Tauchman, who has been on fire with a .500 batting average and 1.100 OPS over the last week, should capitalize on Gore's vulnerabilities. The Nationals, despite ranking 15th in batting average, struggle with power, ranking 29th in home runs.

Both bullpens have been less than stellar, with the Cubs ranked 24th and the Nationals 27th in the Power Rankings. However, the Cubs' offense and Hendricks' potential for improvement give them the upper hand. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Cubs are projected to score 5.20 runs, making them a big favorite with a 61% win probability. With the betting market suggesting a 56% chance, there may be value in backing the Cubs as they aim to solidify their playoff chances.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's change-up rate has risen by 6.5% from last year to this one (2.9% to 9.4%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Joey Gallo has a ton of pop (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (37.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Kyle Hendricks has a pitch-to-contact profile (1st percentile K%) — great news for Gallo.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Among all starting pitchers, Kyle Hendricks's fastball velocity of 87.1 mph grades out in the 0th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Dansby Swanson's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 89.1-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 83-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.4% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 61 games at home (+15.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 80 of their last 144 games (+6.45 Units / 3% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+18.65 Units / 59% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.32 vs Chicago Cubs 5.13

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.