Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Odds – 8/14/2024

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: August 14, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • DJ Herz - Nationals
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

On August 14, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Washington Nationals at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in a high-stakes Interleague matchup. The Orioles are enjoying a solid season, currently sitting at 70-50 and ranked 2nd in MLB in offensive performance. In contrast, the Nationals find themselves at 55-65, struggling with an offense ranked 22nd overall. In their last game, the Nationals upset the Orioles and will look to do the same here.

Baltimore's Dean Kremer is set to take the mound, despite a disappointing 4-9 record this season. His ERA stands at 4.70, ranking him as the 169th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, indicating he has underperformed. However, Kremer may find some favorable conditions against a Nationals lineup that has managed only 85 home runs this year, the 2nd least in the league. The projections suggest he could allow an average of 2.3 earned runs, while his flyball tendency plays into the Nationals' lack of power.

On the other side, the Nationals will counter with DJ Herz, who has been deemed an average pitcher with a 4.41 ERA. His projections aren't promising, as he is expected to pitch just 4.3 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs and 4.2 hits—numbers that could spell trouble against the Orioles' powerful offense, which ranks 1st in MLB with 157 home runs. The Orioles have a high implied team total of 5.09 runs, reflecting confidence in their ability to capitalize on Herz's vulnerabilities.

With the Orioles favored at -175, this matchup offers a chance for bettors to capitalize on Baltimore's strength against a struggling Nationals team. As the series continues, expect a competitive game with the Orioles aiming to maintain their momentum.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

DJ Herz has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 6.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Juan Yepez has been lucky this year, posting a .363 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .300 — a .063 gap.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Washington Nationals projected offense grades out as the 3rd-worst of the day in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Given the 0.59 disparity between Dean Kremer's 8.64 K/9 and his 8.06 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in MLB this year when it comes to strikeouts and ought to perform worse in future games.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Austin Slater is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 9.6% Barrel% of the Baltimore Orioles makes them the #3 club in MLB this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 73 games (+18.05 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 36 away games (+11.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.70 Units / 41% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.25 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.93

Get daily MLB picks here.