Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 5/18/2025

The Baltimore Orioles host the Washington Nationals on May 18, 2025, in a pivotal Interleague matchup. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Orioles sitting at 15-29 and the Nationals at 20-27. In their last game, the Nationals managed to edge out the Orioles 10-6, showcasing their offensive potential despite their overall record.

On the mound, the Orioles are projected to send Zach Eflin, a right-handed pitcher with a solid 3.13 ERA and strong 3.47 xFIP, showing he’s been somewhat lucky this year. Eflin boasts a 3-1 win/loss record and is ranked the 52nd best starting pitcher in MLB. He projects to pitch 6.0 innings, yielding 2.6 earned runs, but with a concerning average of 5.9 hits allowed and 0.9 walks.

In contrast, Mike Soroka of the Nationals has struggled with a 0-2 record and a troubling 6.43 ERA, even though his xFIP suggests he may be due for a rebound. Soroka projects to pitch 4.9 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs but with a high average of 1.9 walks and 4.7 hits allowed.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 22nd in MLB, struggling with both batting average and stolen bases, while their home run output is average at best. The Nationals also sit 21st in offensive rankings but have displayed a stronger power presence, ranking 18th in home runs and 6th in stolen bases.

As the Orioles enter this game as favorites with a -170 moneyline and projected team total of 5.34 runs, they will look to leverage their home advantage and a potentially advantageous pitching matchup against a struggling Soroka. With both teams in dire need of a win to turn around their seasons, fans can expect a competitive atmosphere at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

With 6 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Mike Soroka encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

This season, James Wood has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 100.4 mph compared to last year's 96.6 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

It may be wise to expect negative regression for the Washington Nationals offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Out of all starting pitchers, Zach Eflin's fastball velocity of 91.7 mph grades out in the 15th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Washington's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Cedric Mullins, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.60 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 away games (+8.00 Units / 39% ROI)
• Zach Eflin has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+6.20 Units / 41% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.26, Baltimore Orioles 5.08

• Date: May 18, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mike Soroka - Nationals
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles

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