Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 5/17/2025

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Washington Nationals on May 17, 2025, both teams are struggling to find their footing in a challenging season. The Orioles sit at 15-28, while the Nationals hold a slightly better record of 19-27. This interleague matchup comes on the heels of a previous contest where the Nationals emerged victorious, adding pressure on the Orioles to turn things around at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Both teams feature pitchers who have faced their share of difficulties this season. Kyle Gibson, projected to start for the Orioles, has a troubling 13.11 ERA, indicating a rough outing in his previous starts. Despite his low ranking as the 225th best starting pitcher in MLB, advanced statistics suggest he might have been unlucky, with a 5.45 xFIP that indicates potential for improvement. Gibson's projections for the game show he is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing approximately 3.0 earned runs, striking out 4.3 batters while giving up nearly 6 hits and 1.6 walks.

On the other side, Jake Irvin is slated to take the mound for the Nationals. Although his ERA of 4.00 is relatively solid, his 4.82 xFIP suggests he could be due for a downturn. Irvin has a modest win-loss record of 2-1 but projects to pitch about 5.0 innings, allowing 3.8 earned runs and striking out 3.6 batters, which isn’t ideal.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 23rd in MLB, struggling to generate consistent runs, while the Nationals hold a slightly better rank at 19th. The projections hint that the Orioles could outperform their current standing, especially given that they are favored with a moneyline of -155. With an implied team total of 5.49 runs, they have the potential to break out, especially if their best hitters continue to produce at their recent pace.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin's 91.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 2.5-mph decrease from last year's 93.9-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

James Wood has made big strides with his Barrel%, improving his 10.7% rate last year to 18.1% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Washington's 7.7° launch angle (an advanced stat to evaluate the ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the lowest in the league this year: #30 overall.

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Kyle Gibson is an extreme groundball pitcher (45% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Oriole Park at Camden Yards — the #3 HR venue among all stadiums — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Gunnar Henderson has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.5-mph to 101.4-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• Kyle Gibson has hit the Earned Runs Over in his last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 90% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 5.05, Baltimore Orioles 6.27

• Date: May 17, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Kyle Gibson - Orioles

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