Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Pick & Preview – 8/13/2024

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: August 13, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Trevor Rogers - Orioles

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Washington Nationals on August 13, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Orioles are enjoying a strong season with a record of 70-49, positioning themselves well in the playoff race. In contrast, the Nationals sit at 54-65, struggling to find consistency and ranking as the 24th best offense in MLB this season.

Both teams enter this contest coming off of a loss in their last game. This game marks the first of a series between these two clubs, and the Orioles will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

The matchup features Trevor Rogers, a left-handed pitcher for the Orioles, who has had a tumultuous season with a 2-10 record and a 4.71 ERA. Despite being ranked 249th among starting pitchers, Rogers has managed to keep the ball on the ground, boasting a 47% groundball rate. However, he faces a Nationals lineup that has demonstrated little power, ranking 29th in home runs this season. This could play into Rogers' favor, as his groundball tendencies may limit damage from a low-strikeout offense.

On the other side, Jake Irvin will take the mound for the Nationals. With an 8-10 record and a solid 3.76 ERA, Irvin has been a reliable presence, though he faces a daunting challenge against the 3rd best offense in MLB. While he has kept walks to a minimum, the Orioles' ability to generate runs and their impressive power numbers—leading the league in home runs—could put pressure on Irvin from the start.

With the Orioles favored at -165 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 5.02 runs, they have the potential to exploit the Nationals' weaknesses. As the two teams clash, the Orioles aim to maintain their strong momentum while the Nationals look to turn their season around.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jake Irvin has used his non-fastballs 9% more often this year (44.4%) than he did last season (35.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Harold Ramirez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (77% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles infield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Ramon Urias has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 87.8-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 57 of their last 106 games (+15.20 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 64 of their last 112 games (+9.45 Units / 6% ROI)
• Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+13.70 Units / 45% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.29 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.5

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