Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/23/2024

• Date: August 23, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Chris Sale - Braves

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Washington Nationals on August 23, 2024, they find themselves in a favorable position in the National League East. Currently sitting with a record of 68-59, the Braves are enjoying an above-average season, while the Nationals, at 58-70, are struggling with a below-average performance. This matchup marks the first game in their series, and the Braves will look to capitalize on their strong standing.

In their last outing, the Braves delivered an impressive performance, securing a victory over the Philadelphia Phillies. Atlanta's lineup ranks as the 13th best in MLB, with standout power, as evidenced by their 10th rank in home runs. However, they also rank 28th in stolen bases, indicating a lack of speed on the basepaths. On the other hand, the Nationals enter this game with the 22nd best offense but have a remarkable 3rd ranking in stolen bases, highlighting their speed.

On the mound, Chris Sale takes the ball for the Braves, boasting an elite standing as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB, with a stellar 14-3 record and a 2.62 ERA. Sale has been an asset throughout the season, projecting to pitch around 6.3 innings and allow just 1.7 earned runs. Conversely, MacKenzie Gore, projected to start for the Nationals, has had a more challenging season, with a 7-11 record and a 4.66 ERA.

With the Braves favored heavily, indicated by a moneyline of -265 and an implied team total of 4.61 runs, they will look to leverage their strong pitching and offensive firepower against a struggling Nationals squad, projected to manage only 2.89 runs. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, suggesting a potential for a dominant outing from Sale.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's change-up rate has spiked by 5.9% from last season to this one (2.9% to 8.8%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.332) suggests that Alex Call has been very fortunate this year with his .427 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

James Wood hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale's fastball velocity has spiked 1 mph this season (94.3 mph) over where it was last year (93.3 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Whit Merrifield has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (89% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Atlanta Braves have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 111 games (+28.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 65 games (+8.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 41 games (+16.10 Units / 20% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.3 vs Atlanta Braves 5.32

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