Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/24/2024

• Date: August 24, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Charlie Morton - Braves

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face the Washington Nationals on August 24, 2024, at Truist Park, they find themselves holding a solid record of 69-59, currently standing 2nd in the National League East. The Braves have been performing well this season, and they are looking to build on their recent success after securing a victory against the Nationals in their last matchup.

On the mound for the Braves, Charlie Morton is set to take the ball. Morton has been an average pitcher this season, ranking as the 105th best starter in MLB according to advanced stats. With a Win/Loss record of 7-7 and an ERA of 4.29, he projects to pitch approximately 5.7 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 6.5 batters. However, he has struggled with allowing hits and walks, projecting 5.2 hits and 2.0 walks on average today, which could be a concern against a team like the Nationals.

Jake Irvin will take the mound for Washington, bringing a 9-10 record and a commendable ERA of 3.81. His ability to limit walks with a low 5.7 BB% may serve him well against the Braves, who are 5th least in MLB for walks. However, with a projected 3.1 earned runs and a strikeout projection of just 4.5 batters, Irvin may find it challenging against a Braves offense that ranks 13th overall in MLB this season.

While the Braves are substantial betting favorites with a moneyline of -180 and an implied team total of 4.82 runs, the Nationals' low implied total of 3.68 runs reflects their underwhelming offensive performance, ranking 22nd in the league. Given the matchup and the projections, this game could tilt in favor of the Braves, especially as they look to leverage their offensive advantages against a struggling Nationals lineup.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.1 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Keibert Ruiz's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 89.9-mph average last year has dropped to 86.8-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Charlie Morton must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot this year: 61.9% of the time, placing in the 86th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Marcell Ozuna has been lucky this year, notching a .408 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .350 — a .058 disparity.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Jarred Kelenic hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 108 games (+29.10 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 70 of their last 122 games (+11.85 Units / 7% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+11.30 Units / 113% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.26 vs Atlanta Braves 5.27

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