Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 5/13/2025

As the Atlanta Braves host the Washington Nationals on May 13, 2025, both teams look to improve their mid-season standings in the National League East. The Braves currently sit at 20-21, showing signs of an average season, while the Nationals, at 17-25, have struggled significantly. In their last outing, the Braves edged out the Nationals in a closely contested game, highlighting the competitive nature of this matchup.

On the mound, the Braves will rely on Spencer Schwellenbach, who has had a solid season despite a 1-3 record. Schwellenbach is ranked as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced statistics, showcasing his ability to limit earned runs with an impressive ERA of 3.61. His projections for today suggest he will pitch an average of 6.0 innings while allowing only 2.2 earned runs, which bodes well against a Nationals offense that has struggled to find its rhythm.

Conversely, the Nationals will counter with Mike Soroka, who has had a rough start to the season with a 0-2 record and a troubling ERA of 7.20. Although Soroka's xFIP indicates he might improve, his current projections suggest he will only last about 5.0 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs. Additionally, his tendency to allow 1.9 walks per game could be costly against the Braves' offense.

While Atlanta ranks 17th in overall offensive performance, they will look to capitalize on Soroka’s struggles. With the Braves favored with a moneyline of -230 and an implied team total of 5.10 runs, they are in a prime position to secure a victory in this crucial matchup.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mike Soroka has been unlucky since the start of last season, notching a 5.01 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.08 — a 0.93 difference.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

James Wood has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.5-mph to 102.6-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Washington's 8° launch angle (a reliable standard to measure the ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the lowest in the game this year: #30 overall.

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Atlanta Braves.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme flyball batters like Ozzie Albies tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Mike Soroka.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Atlanta Braves batters as a group have been among the best in the league this year (8th-) when assessing their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.60 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.47 Units / 23% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.60 Units / 47% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.79, Atlanta Braves 4.56

• Date: May 13, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mike Soroka - Nationals
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

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