Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 5/12/2025

The Atlanta Braves will host the Washington Nationals on May 12, 2025, in what shapes up to be an intriguing matchup despite both teams having disappointing seasons. The Braves currently hold a record of 19-21, while the Nationals sit at 17-24. Both teams are struggling, with the Braves projected to start Grant Holmes, ranked as the 135th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, and the Nationals countering with Jake Irvin, who is considered one of the worst pitchers in the league.

In their last game, the Braves were beaten by the Pittsburgh Pirates and they will look to bounce back from that. Holmes has posted a 2-3 record this season with a 4.58 ERA, which is average, but his 4.00 xFIP suggests he has faced some bad luck and could improve. Conversely, Irvin has had better luck, boasting a solid 3.94 ERA despite a higher 4.55 xFIP, indicating potential regression.

Offensively, the Braves rank 17th in the league, showcasing their average potential, while the Nationals rank 16th. The Nationals will need their bats to produce late in this game against a below-average Braves bullpen ranked 20th in MLB.

The Braves enter this matchup as significant favorites with a moneyline of -170 and an implied team total of 4.75 runs. The Nationals, however, are underdogs at +145, with a lower projected team total of 3.75 runs. This game presents an opportunity for the Braves to capitalize on their home-field advantage and leverage their pitching depth against a struggling Nationals team.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin's fastball velocity has fallen 2.4 mph this season (91.5 mph) below where it was last year (93.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Over the past 7 days, Nathaniel Lowe's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Washington Nationals projected batting order projects as the 4th-weakest of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Grant Holmes is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #24 HR venue in the league in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Matt Olson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.4-mph average to last season's 94-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Atlanta Braves bats as a group have been among the best in the majors this year (8th-) as it relates to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games at home (+3.55 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+9.05 Units / 60% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.71, Atlanta Braves 5.1

• Date: May 12, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Grant Holmes - Braves

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