Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 5/15/2025

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Washington Nationals on May 15, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League East matchup. The Braves are currently sitting at 21-22, while the Nationals trail with an 18-26 record. Both teams are struggling to find their footing this season, with Atlanta's offense ranked 16th overall and Washington's at 20th.

On the mound, Atlanta is projected to start AJ Smith-Shawver, who has had a mixed year with a 2-2 record and an impressive ERA of 2.76. However, his 3.79 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, indicating potential struggles ahead. Smith-Shawver projects to pitch an average of 5.1 innings today, allowing around 2.7 earned runs, which aligns with his overall performance this season.

Trevor Williams will take the hill for the Nationals, bringing a 2-4 record and a troubling ERA of 5.88. His 4.02 xFIP shows that he may have been unlucky, but he still projects to allow an average of 3.1 earned runs in about 5.0 innings. Given that both pitchers are right-handed, the Braves' lineup, despite its average ranking, may have the edge.

The Braves are favored with a moneyline of -210, translating to a high implied team total of 4.99 runs. In contrast, the Nationals, with a moneyline of +180, have a low implied total of 3.51 runs. With Atlanta’s recent success and the projections favoring their offense, the Braves look poised to capitalize on this opportunity and secure another win in the series.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Trevor Williams's fastball velocity has decreased 2 mph this season (86.8 mph) below where it was last year (88.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

With a .235 wOBA over the past 14 days, Josh Bell has been struggling at the plate.

• Recent struggles may mean the player is not seeing the ball well, is playing hurt, or has something going on that will hamper him in the short-term.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

AJ Smith-Shawver is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #25 HR venue in the league in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Typically, bats like Ozzie Albies who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Trevor Williams.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Atlanta Braves (21.3 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone team of batters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.80 Units / 31% ROI)
• Drake Baldwin has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.25 Units / 50% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.65, Atlanta Braves 5.15

• Date: May 15, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals
  • AJ Smith-Shawver - Braves

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