Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 5/14/2025

The Atlanta Braves enter their matchup against the Washington Nationals on May 14, 2025, at Truist Park with a record of 21-21, positioning them in the middle of the pack in the National League East. The Nationals, struggling at 17-26, are having a rough season and are looking for ways to turn things around. This game represents the third in the series, and the Braves clinched the previous game, showcasing their potential.

Bryce Elder is set to take the mound for Atlanta. Despite being ranked as the 139th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, Elder has shown some signs of promise. He has a Win/Loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.97, indicating a below-average performance this season. However, his projected 5.7 innings pitched and an average of 2.6 earned runs allowed suggest he could offer some stability. Moreover, his xFIP of 3.94 indicates he might have had some bad luck so far.

On the other side, Mitchell Parker will start for the Nationals. Although Parker has a decent Win/Loss record of 3-3 and an ERA of 3.97, his peripherals tell a different story. His xFIP stands at 5.40, hinting at an unsustainable level of good fortune. With a projected average performance of 5.2 innings pitched and 3.2 earned runs allowed, he faces a tough task against a Braves lineup that, while average overall, has shown flashes of power.

The Braves' offense is ranked 17th best in MLB this season, with solid metrics in home runs (13th) and a mediocre batting average (19th). Meanwhile, the Nationals sit at 15th in offensive rankings. With an average Game Total of 8.5 runs and the Braves listed as betting favorites, this matchup presents an opportunity for the Braves to capitalize on the Nationals' struggles while seeking to build some momentum in the series.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #24 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Josh Bell has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 8.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and will be challenged by the game's 2nd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Bryce Elder's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (50.1% compared to 44.7% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Matt Olson has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last season's 91.3-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Atlanta Braves have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+8.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.80 Units / 35% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.45, Atlanta Braves 5.29

• Date: May 14, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Bryce Elder - Braves

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