Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 6/1/2025

On June 1, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Washington Nationals at Chase Field for the third game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Nationals at 28-30 and the Diamondbacks at 27-31. The stakes may not be high in terms of playoff contention, but both teams are looking to break out of their slumps. In their previous matchup, the Nationals edged out the Diamondbacks, adding some pressure on Arizona to respond.

The Diamondbacks will send Corbin Burnes to the mound, who boasts a solid 2.72 ERA this season, indicating strong performance despite a higher 3.74 xFIP that suggests some regression could be on the horizon. Burnes has started 10 games and holds a 3-2 record, projecting to pitch around 6.1 innings while allowing only 2.1 earned runs. However, he has struggled with allowing 5.4 hits and 1.6 walks per game, which could be areas for concern against a powerful lineup.

In contrast, the Nationals will counter with Mitchell Parker, who has had an average year with a 4.65 ERA and a 4-4 record over 11 starts. Parker's low strikeout rate and flyball tendencies may give the Diamondbacks' potent offense — currently ranked 4th in MLB — an edge. Arizona's lineup has been effective, ranking 5th in home runs with 78 this season.

Betting odds favor the Diamondbacks significantly, with a moneyline of -230. Given their offensive prowess and Burnes' ability on the mound, they are positioned well to overcome the Nationals and secure a much-needed victory.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Because of his large reverse platoon split, Mitchell Parker will hold the advantage facing 7 bats in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Typically, batters like Josh Bell who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Corbin Burnes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Luis Garcia Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Corbin Burnes's 1805-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 4th percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Randal Grichuk is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order grades out as the 4th-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 38 games (+8.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 away games (+8.95 Units / 44% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+8.90 Units / 178% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.72, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.34

• Date: June 1, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Corbin Burnes - D-Backs

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