Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 5/30/2025

As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Washington Nationals on May 30, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling to stay competitive, sitting near the bottom of their division standings. The Diamondbacks currently hold a record of 27-29, while the Nationals sit slightly behind at 26-30. Despite their subpar performances this season, the Diamondbacks have an impressive offense, ranking 4th in MLB, which bodes well against the Nationals' average 17th-ranked offense.

Merrill Kelly is projected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks, boasting a solid 5-2 record and a commendable 3.52 ERA, ranking him as the 63rd best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Kelly's ability to keep earned runs low will be crucial, especially considering his projections for today suggest he might allow 2.4 earned runs over an average of 6.0 innings.

Conversely, the Nationals counter with Jake Irvin, whose 4-1 record masks deeper concerns; he ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB this year. Although Irvin has a respectable 3.42 ERA, his 4.45 xFIP suggests he might not sustain this level of performance. His projected statistics indicate he may struggle today, likely allowing 3.3 earned runs and 6.0 hits.

Given the Diamondbacks' offensive strength and Irvin's potential vulnerabilities, they enter the game as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -210. The matchup leans favorably toward the Diamondbacks, especially considering their ability to capitalize on Irvin's high flyball rate, which may lead to home runs given their 5th ranking in that category this season. With a Game Total of 9.0 runs, bettors might find value in a Diamondbacks victory today.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Generating 18.6 outs per outing this year on average, Jake Irvin ranks in the 95th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

In the last two weeks' worth of games, Josh Bell's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Luis Garcia Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Merrill Kelly has used his cut-fastball 7.5% less often this year (17.7%) than he did last season (25.2%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94-mph average to last season's 89.2-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 20.2% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+11.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.47 Units / 14% ROI)
• Luis Garcia has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 away games (+9.25 Units / 132% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.98, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.4

• Date: May 30, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs

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