Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 5/31/2025

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Washington Nationals at Chase Field on May 31, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling with identical records of 27-30, indicating a below-average season thus far. The Diamondbacks are currently projected to start Brandon Pfaadt, who has had a solid Win/Loss record of 7-3 and an ERA of 3.90. However, his 6.36 xERA suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, raising concerns about his future performance. On the other side, Mike Soroka will take the mound for the Nationals, bringing a less favorable record of 1-3 and a troubling ERA of 5.61, although his 3.44 xFIP indicates he could perform better moving forward.

In their last matchup, the Nationals managed to edge out the Diamondbacks, giving them momentum heading into this second game of the series. The D-Backs boast a potent offense, currently ranked 4th in MLB, and they have hit 77 home runs this season, which ranks 5th overall. This offensive firepower could pose a challenge for Soroka, who is known for being a high-groundball pitcher (53% GB) and may struggle against such a powerful lineup.

The betting lines reflect the Diamondbacks' status as significant favorites with a moneyline of -195 and an implied team total of 5.18 runs. The projections suggest that despite both teams’ struggles, the Diamondbacks have a better chance to capitalize on their offensive strengths against a struggling pitcher like Soroka. In contrast, the Nationals, with an average-ranked offense (17th overall), will need to find a way to break through against Pfaadt if they hope to turn their fortunes around in this matchup.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mike Soroka's 93.5-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.5-mph increase from last year's 92-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nathaniel Lowe stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Luis Garcia Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #29 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Batters such as Eugenio Suarez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Mike Soroka who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 5th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games (+9.50 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.85 Units / 40% ROI)
• James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.00 Units / 34% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.83, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.03

• Date: May 31, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mike Soroka - Nationals
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

Get daily MLB picks here.