Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays Prediction For 6/28/2024

Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: June 28, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Zach Eflin - Rays

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Washington Nationals at Tropicana Field on June 28, 2024, both teams enter this interleague matchup with sub-.500 records and hopes of turning their seasons around. The Rays, sitting at 40-41, have had an average season, while the Nationals, at 38-42, are lagging slightly behind.

On the mound, the Rays will start Zach Eflin, the 36th best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Eflin's 4.12 ERA might not turn heads, but his 3.43 xERA suggests that he's been unlucky and could improve. Despite a 3-4 record, Eflin's projected to pitch 5.4 innings and allow an average of 1.9 earned runs, which bodes well against a Washington offense that ranks 24th in MLB.

Eflin's high flyball rate (36%) should align well against the Nationals, who have the 2nd least home runs in MLB with just 67 on the season. This matchup could mitigate the potential damage of Eflin's flyballs, giving him an edge.

Mitchell Parker will take the mound for the Nationals. Despite a 5-3 record and a stellar 3.06 ERA, Parker's peripherals tell a different story. His 4.04 xFIP indicates he has been fortunate, and he may be due for regression. The projections expect Parker to pitch only 4.3 innings and allow 2.2 earned runs. With a low strikeout rate (18.3%) going up against a Rays lineup that strikes out a lot (6th most in MLB), Parker might get away with fewer punchouts than usual.

Offensively, both teams have struggled. The Rays rank 21st in overall offense, with a particularly poor showing in home runs (26th). However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th. Ben Rortvedt has been a bright spot for Tampa Bay recently, hitting .467 with a 1.500 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Washington's offense is ranked 24th overall, 29th in home runs, but 3rd in stolen bases. CJ Abrams has been hot, hitting .480 with 12 hits and 8 runs in the last week.

The Rays' bullpen, ranked 15th, is average, while the Nationals' bullpen, ranked 28th, has been one of the worst. This disparity could be crucial in a close game, favoring Tampa Bay in the later innings.

With the Rays being the betting favorites at -160 and an implied win probability of 59%, their combination of a solid starting pitcher in Eflin, a better bullpen, and home-field advantage makes them a strong pick against the Nationals.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker's 2176-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 16th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Luis Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Washington Nationals projected offense ranks as the 2nd-weakest on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zach Eflin has averaged 17.2 outs per start this year, placing in the 79th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Amed Rosario has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph dropping to 75.5-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Tampa Bay Rays bats as a unit rank among the worst in Major League Baseball this year ( 4th-worst) in regard to their 87.9-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 77 games (+21.25 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 68 games (+13.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• Eddie Rosario has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+9.80 Units / 27% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.54 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.46

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