Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays Pick & Prediction – 6/30/2024

Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: June 30, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays and Washington Nationals are set to clash on June 30, 2024, at Tropicana Field. This Interleague matchup marks the third game in their series. The Rays, who are having an average season with a 41-42 record, will face the Nationals, who sit at 39-43 and are having a below-average season.

Taj Bradley, a right-handed pitcher, will take the mound for the Rays. Bradley has been solid this season, holding a 3.81 ERA across nine starts, although his peripherals suggest he might be due for some regression. His xERA of 4.81 and FIP of 4.47 indicate that he has been somewhat lucky thus far. Nevertheless, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Bradley to allow just 2.2 earned runs over 5.9 innings, which is a favorable outlook for Tampa Bay. Bradley’s propensity for flyballs should play well against a Nationals offense that ranks 29th in home runs this season.

On the other side, the Nationals will send left-hander Patrick Corbin to the hill. Corbin has struggled mightily this season, posting a 5.46 ERA despite his xFIP of 4.44 suggesting he has been unlucky. Corbin's 1-7 record over 16 starts does little to inspire confidence. The projections have him allowing 3.2 earned runs over 5.3 innings, which is concerning given Tampa Bay's ability to manufacture runs. While the Rays rank just 27th in home runs, their high stolen base count (5th in MLB) could be a thorn in Corbin's side.

Offensively, the Rays have been led recently by Jose Siri, who boasts a .278 average and a 1.020 OPS over the past week. Meanwhile, the Nationals' CJ Abrams has been on fire, hitting .400 with a 1.170 OPS in the same span.

The Rays hold the edge in bullpen strength, ranking 13th, compared to the Nationals' woeful 29th ranking. With the Rays being considerable favorites (-180 moneyline) and the Nationals as underdogs (+155 moneyline), Tampa Bay’s superior pitching and bullpen depth make them a strong bet to take this game. Additionally, the advanced-stat Power Rankings see a significant gap in bullpen quality, further tipping the scales in favor of the Rays.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Patrick Corbin will give up an average of 3.28 earned runs in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Harold Ramirez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Lane Thomas pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 85th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley has utilized his change-up 14% more often this season (27.9%) than he did last season (13.9%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Jonny Deluca's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 83.9-mph seasonal average has dropped to 79.9-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Tampa Bay grades out as the #29 club in baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (41.1% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games (+13.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 79 games (+10.53 Units / 10% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 39% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.64 vs Tampa Bay Rays 5.07

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.