Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals Best Bet – 7/28/2024

Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: July 28, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • DJ Herz - Nationals
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On July 28, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Washington Nationals at Busch Stadium in the third game of their series. The Cardinals, currently sitting at 53-50, are having an average season and are eyeing a crucial win to stay competitive. Meanwhile, the Nationals, with a 48-56 record, are struggling through a below-average campaign.

Miles Mikolas is set to start for the Cardinals. With an 8-8 record and a 5.02 ERA, Mikolas has had a tough season, but his 4.20 xFIP suggests some bad luck, indicating he might perform better moving forward. He has been an average innings-eater, projecting to pitch 5.8 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs. However, his low strikeout rate (16.4 K%) could be an issue against a Nationals lineup that ranks 6th in the league in least strikeouts.

DJ Herz will take the mound for Washington. Herz, a lefty with a 1-4 record and a 4.95 ERA, has also faced his share of struggles. His 3.62 xFIP suggests that he, like Mikolas, has been unlucky this season. Herz projects to pitch only 4.4 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs on average, which isn't ideal for a team looking to turn its fortunes around.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 19th in MLB, an average standing, while the Nationals lag behind at 26th. Despite this, the Nationals excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd, which could provide a spark against a Cardinals team that has struggled with power, ranking 22nd in home runs.

The Cardinals' bullpen, ranked 3rd by advanced-stat Power Rankings, provides a significant edge over the Nationals, who have the 29th-ranked bullpen. This disparity could be crucial late in the game, especially given the high total of 9.0 runs set for this matchup.

Michael Siani has been a bright spot for St. Louis recently, boasting a 0.444 batting average and a 1.056 OPS over the last week. On the other side, Juan Yepez has been hot for Washington, hitting .368 with a 1.034 OPS over the same period.

With the Cardinals favored at -150 and an implied win probability of 58%, they have a good chance to secure a win against a struggling Nationals team. The combination of better bullpen performance and a slightly more reliable offense gives St. Louis the edge in this National League matchup.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

With 6 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, DJ Herz encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

James Wood has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.1-mph to 97-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Washington Nationals projected lineup grades out as the 3rd-worst on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas was in good form in his last start and conceded 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Alec Burleson has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 29.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a fair amount higher than his 18.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 36 games (+4.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 55 away games (+8.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.15 Units / 23% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.14 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.76

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