Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres Pick & Prediction – 6/25/2024

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: June 25, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Adam Mazur - Padres

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals gear up for their second game of their series on June 25, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of average seasons, with the Padres holding a 42-41 record and the Nationals at 38-40. The Padres, who won yesterday's matchup, will look to build on that momentum at Petco Park.

Adam Mazur takes the mound for the Padres, sporting a rough 7.27 ERA this season. Despite his 0-2 record in four starts, his xFIP of 6.53 suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and could improve. Mazur faces a Nationals offense ranked 24th in MLB, which could be a favorable matchup for him. However, Mazur's projections are less than stellar, with an expected 5.2 innings pitched, 3.6 strikeouts, and 2.4 earned runs allowed, which could spell trouble.

On the flip side, the Nationals will counter with MacKenzie Gore, a left-handed pitcher who has been solid this season with a 3.49 ERA and a 6-6 record in 15 starts. Gore's 2.83 FIP indicates he's been slightly unlucky as well. He faces a Padres lineup that ranks 8th in offense, 2nd in team batting average, and 9th in home runs this season. While Gore is a high-strikeout pitcher (28.2 K%), the Padres are one of the toughest teams to strike out, ranking 5th least in MLB, which could neutralize one of his key strengths.

The Padres offense has been led by Jackson Merrill, who has been on fire over the last week with a .409 batting average and 1.322 OPS, including 3 home runs and 6 RBIs. Meanwhile, CJ Abrams has been the standout for the Nationals over the same period, hitting .444 with a 1.251 OPS.

The betting markets currently favor the Padres slightly with a moneyline of -120, giving them an implied win probability of 52%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Padres to have a 57% win probability, suggesting there may be some value in betting on San Diego. The Padres are projected to score 4.46 runs, while the Nationals are expected to put up 4.12 runs, making for what should be a closely contested game.

With both teams having average seasons and closely matched records, this game could provide some fireworks, especially given the Padres' offensive prowess and the Nationals' strong starting pitcher in Gore.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Because of his large reverse platoon split, MacKenzie Gore will hold the advantage squaring off against 6 bats in the projected lineup who bat from the opposite side in today's matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Luis Garcia's batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Joey Meneses has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 6th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The switch-hitting Jurickson Profar will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against MacKenzie Gore.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Projected catcher Kyle Higashioka grades out as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.85 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 72 games (+15.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• Eddie Rosario has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.93 vs San Diego Padres 4.41

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.