Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates Pick & Prediction – 9/5/2024

• Date: September 5, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Washington Nationals on September 5, 2024, both teams are looking to improve upon disappointing seasons. The Pirates, currently sitting at 65-74, have struggled offensively, ranking 27th in MLB. Meanwhile, the Nationals are slightly worse off at 62-77 and have been particularly ineffective at the plate, ranking 29th in home runs.

In their most recent outing, the Pirates lost in blowout fashion to the Chicago Cubs, while the Nationals lost a tight game to the Miami Marlins in extra innings. For this matchup, Bailey Falter is projected to start for the Pirates. Despite being ranked 206th among starting pitchers, Falter's ERA stands at a respectable 4.41. However, his xERA of 5.05 suggests he has been somewhat lucky this season. He will face Jake Irvin, who has a slightly better record (9-11) but still falls short in terms of overall effectiveness.

One key factor is the contrasting styles of the two pitchers. Falter, a left-hander, has been a low-strikeout pitcher going against a Nationals offense that strikes out less frequently. This dynamic could work in Washington's favor, especially given that Falter allows a high number of fly balls, which may not translate to home runs against a power-challenged Nationals lineup.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the betting markets anticipate a close encounter. The Pirates have a moneyline of -125, suggesting a 53% implied win probability. This provides an intriguing opportunity for bettors, particularly if they believe in the potential of the Pirates to outperform their recent struggles, especially against a Nationals team that has been underwhelming in nearly every aspect of the game this season.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

In his last outing, Jake Irvin allowed a colossal 7 earned runs.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Keibert Ruiz's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 89.9-mph figure last year has fallen off to 87.2-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

James Wood has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Considering that groundball hitters hold a big advantage over flyball pitchers, Bailey Falter and his 36.8% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome position in this matchup matching up with 0 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

When it comes to his home runs, Oneil Cruz has had some very poor luck this year. His 21.1 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 32.9.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

It may be smart to expect better results for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 58 of their last 102 games (+11.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 78 of their last 139 games (+7.88 Units / 4% ROI)
• Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 11 away games (+7.05 Units / 50% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.31 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.79

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