Washington Nationals at Oakland Athletics Pick & Prediction – 4/12/2024

Washington Nationals vs Oakland Athletics Overview

• Date: April 12, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Paul Blackburn - Athletics
• Run Line: Nationals 1.5 -185, Athletics -1.5 160
• Money Line: Nationals 115, Athletics -135
• Total (Over/Under):8 -105

Washington Nationals vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 45%
• Oakland Athletics - 55%

Projected Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 42.56%
• Oakland Athletics - 57.44%

Washington Nationals vs Oakland Athletics Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated interleague matchup, the Washington Nationals will face off against the Oakland Athletics at the Oakland Coliseum on April 12, 2024. The Athletics, who are struggling with a season record of 5-8, will be playing as the home team, while the Nationals, with a record of 5-7, will be the away team.

The Athletics are projected to start right-handed pitcher Paul Blackburn, who has had a strong start to the season. With a win-loss record of 1-0 and an impressive ERA of 0.00, Blackburn has shown great potential. However, advanced-stat Power Rankings suggest that Blackburn is below average compared to other MLB starting pitchers. His 3.92 xFIP indicates that he has been fortunate so far and may see a decline in performance going forward. On average, Blackburn is projected to pitch around 5.5 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs in this game.

The Nationals, on the other hand, will rely on right-handed pitcher Jake Irvin, who has struggled this season. With a win-loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 5.73, Irvin has faced difficulties on the mound. However, his 3.32 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may see an improvement in his performance in the future. Irvin is projected to pitch around 5.2 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs on average.

Both teams have been having a tough season, with the Athletics ranked 25th and the Nationals ranked 19th in terms of overall offensive performance in MLB. The Athletics have been particularly weak in team batting average, ranking 30th out of 30 teams. However, they have excelled in stolen bases, ranking 5th in the league. The Nationals, on the other hand, have shown a solid team batting average, ranking 6th in MLB, but have struggled with home runs, ranking 29th.

In terms of bullpen performance, both teams are ranked among the worst in MLB. The Athletics' bullpen is ranked 27th, while the Nationals' bullpen is ranked 29th. This suggests that both teams may face challenges in maintaining leads late in the game.

According to the current odds, the Athletics are favored to win with a moneyline set at -135, implying a win probability of 55%. The Nationals, with a moneyline of +115, have a win probability of 45% according to the betting markets.

Overall, this game is expected to be closely contested. The Athletics have the advantage of playing at home and have a slightly higher projected team total of 4.23 runs compared to the Nationals' 3.77 runs. However, the Nationals may benefit from Paul Blackburn's low strikeout rate against their low-strikeout offense, giving them an edge. Additionally, Blackburn's high groundball rate may play into the Nationals' hands as they have struggled with power hitting.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Jake Irvin will give up an average of 2.1 singles in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

In the last 14 days, Eddie Rosario has averaged an impressive 101.3-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced indicator of home run potential.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Washington Nationals bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

J.J. Bleday is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Washington (#1-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

J.D. Davis has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 71 of their last 124 games (+11.28 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 84 games (+19.80 Units / 23% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals 4 vs Oakland Athletics 4.43

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