Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers Pick For 7/14/2024

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: July 14, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Colin Rea - Brewers

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers and Washington Nationals are set to face off on July 14, 2024, at American Family Field in what will be the third game of their series. The Brewers are having a solid season with a 54-42 record, positioning themselves well in the National League playoff race. In contrast, the Nationals are struggling with a 44-52 record, indicating a below-average season.

The Brewers are projected to start Colin Rea, a right-handed pitcher who has started 18 games this year. Rea holds an 8-3 Win/Loss record with a 3.81 ERA, which suggests he's been effective, though his 4.58 xFIP indicates he might have been a bit lucky. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Rea to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, which is below average, and striking out 3.9 batters, which is a concerning projection.

On the other side, the Nationals will send Jake Irvin to the mound. Irvin, also a right-hander, has a 7-7 Win/Loss record with a stellar 3.13 ERA over 19 starts. However, his 3.81 xFIP suggests some regression might be due. The projections have Irvin pitching 5.2 innings and allowing 2.9 earned runs, which is not ideal, and striking out 4.6 batters, which is below average.

The Brewers' offense ranks 9th in MLB, buoyed by their 5th-best team batting average and 2nd-best in stolen bases. However, they struggle with power, ranking 20th in home runs. Conversely, the Nationals' offense ranks poorly at 24th overall, but they do have the 3rd-most stolen bases in MLB.

Sal Frelick has been the Brewers' standout hitter over the last week, boasting a .467 batting average and a 1.263 OPS. For the Nationals, Ildemaro Vargas has been their best performer recently, with a .333 batting average and a 1.232 OPS.

Betting odds favor the Brewers with a moneyline of -150, giving them an implied win probability of 58%. The Nationals are underdogs at +130 with a 42% implied win probability. With the Brewers' stronger overall performance this season and the Nationals' bullpen struggles, Milwaukee appears to have the upper hand in this matchup.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his last GS and put up 2 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Keibert Ruiz's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 89.9-mph figure last year has lowered to 86.7-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 7th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Colin Rea is expected to average a total of 3.9 strikeouts in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (10.4) suggests that Jackson Chourio has experienced some positive variance this year with his 18.6 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+7.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 away games (+6.80 Units / 22% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.35 Units / 66% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.7 vs Milwaukee Brewers 5.02

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.