Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins Pick & Prediction – 9/4/2024

• Date: September 4, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Valente Bellozo - Marlins

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Washington Nationals on September 4, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling through disappointing seasons. The Marlins enter the game with a record of 51-87, while the Nationals sit at 62-76. Neither team is contending, but the stakes remain high for pride and future evaluations.

In their most recent outing, the Nationals managed to secure a win, which may boost their morale as they face off against the Marlins for the second game of this series. The Marlins, on the other hand, are enduring a particularly rough stretch, having struggled significantly on both sides of the ball.

Projected starters Valente Bellozo for the Marlins and MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals offer contrasting profiles. Bellozo, ranked #309 among MLB starting pitchers, has had a rocky year with his 2-2 record and a 4.32 ERA. His xFIP of 5.53 indicates he may have been fortunate so far, suggesting potential struggles ahead. Conversely, Gore has been a workhorse, starting 27 games with an 8-11 record and an ERA of 4.45, which aligns with the projections that suggest he could be in line for a positive turnaround.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 29th in MLB, indicating their struggles to put runs on the board. They have particularly faltered in power, ranking 29th in home runs this season. Meanwhile, the Nationals, despite their own offensive challenges and ranking 22nd overall, have shown some life with Jacob Young recently leading the charge, hitting .467 over the past week.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets suggest a closely contested matchup, especially given the Marlins' moneyline of +115 and the Nationals' of -135. This matchup could be pivotal for both teams as they look to build momentum heading into the final stretch of the season.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, MacKenzie Gore has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 6.6 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Typically, bats like Joey Gallo who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Valente Bellozo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Washington Nationals have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Joey Gallo, Jose Tena).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Due to his large reverse platoon split, Valente Bellozo should be in good shape facing 6 hitters in the projected lineup who bat from the other side today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Otto Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen projects as the 5th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 66 games at home (+25.45 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 62 away games (+7.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 away games (+17.30 Units / 133% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.55 vs Miami Marlins 4.31

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