Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bet – 4/15/2024

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Overview

• Date: April 15, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers
• Run Line: Nationals 1.5 140, Dodgers -1.5 -165
• Money Line: Nationals 270, Dodgers -325
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 26%
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 74%

Projected Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 21.76%
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 78.24%

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game Preview & Prediction

The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to host the Washington Nationals on April 15, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. As the home team, the Dodgers will look to continue their strong season with a record of 11-7, while the Nationals aim to turn around their struggling campaign with a record of 6-9. It's a National League matchup that promises an exciting contest.

On the mound, the Dodgers are projected to start the talented right-handed pitcher Tyler Glasnow, who has been exceptional this season. With a 3-0 record, a 2.25 ERA, and a high strikeout rate, Glasnow ranks as the #6 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his 2.97 xFIP suggests that he may regress slightly going forward, indicating that he has been somewhat fortunate this season.

Opposing Glasnow will be the left-handed pitcher Mitchell Parker of the Nationals. Parker has struggled this season, making him one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our Power Rankings. With a below-average projection for today's game, the Nationals will need Parker to step up if they hope to compete against the strong Dodgers lineup.

Speaking of lineups, the Dodgers boast the #3 best offense in MLB this season, showcasing their offensive prowess. With a strong batting average and ranking second in team home runs, the Dodgers have the firepower to put runs on the board. On the other hand, the Nationals offense has struggled, ranking near the bottom in several categories, including team home runs.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Dodgers have the #6 best bullpen in MLB according to our Power Rankings, which should provide additional support for Glasnow and the team. Conversely, the Nationals have the #29 ranked bullpen, indicating a potential advantage for the Dodgers in the later innings.

Considering the team's overall performance and the odds, the Dodgers are heavily favored to win this game. With a current moneyline of -350 and an implied win probability of 75%, the Dodgers have a high projected team total of 5.50 runs. In contrast, the Nationals face an uphill battle as massive underdogs with a current moneyline of +290 and an implied win probability of 25%.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Given his reverse platoon split, Mitchell Parker will be at an advantage facing 6 batters in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Luis Garcia is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Los Angeles (#2-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

In today's game, Joey Gallo is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.9% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Tyler Glasnow's 2545-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 98th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Max Muncy is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernandez, Chris Taylor).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Nationals vs Dodgers Prediction: Nationals 3.42 - Dodgers 6.36

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