Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies Pick For 6/23/2024

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: June 23, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies and the Washington Nationals are set to face off on June 23, 2024, at Coors Field for the third game in their series. The Rockies, currently struggling with a 26-50 record, will look to turn their fortunes around against the Nationals, who sit at a more respectable 37-38. Despite a less-than-stellar season, Colorado's offense boasts the 10th-best team batting average in MLB, a bright spot in an otherwise difficult year.

Kyle Freeland will get the start for the Rockies today. He faces a Nationals lineup that ranks 20th in team batting average and 28th in home runs, potentially giving him an edge. On the flip side, Jake Irvin, a right-handed pitcher for Washington, is slated to start. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Irvin has been a below-average pitcher this season, which could spell trouble against a Colorado offense that has been better than their season record suggests.

The Rockies' offense, while ranking 10th in batting average, has struggled with power, sitting 23rd in home runs. Meanwhile, the Nationals excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd, adding a dynamic element to their offensive strategy. Nolan Jones has been a standout for Colorado over the last week, hitting .438 with a 1.190 OPS, while Jesse Winker has been equally impressive for Washington, hitting .400 with a 1.367 OPS.

Betting markets see this game as a close contest, with the Nationals having a slight edge. The Rockies' moneyline is set at +115, implying a 45% win probability, while the Nationals' moneyline is -135, implying a 55% win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects this game to be even closer, giving both teams a 50% win probability.

With both teams projected to score over 5 runs, this game promises to be a high-scoring affair. The Rockies have an implied team total of 5.18 runs, while the Nationals are at 5.82 runs. Given the high Game Total of 11.0 runs and the projected close match, this game offers intriguing betting opportunities, particularly with the Rockies showing a 5% greater win probability than the betting market suggests.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Washington ranks as the #28 squad in Major League Baseball when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (14% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 68 games (+17.65 Units / 20% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 6.09 vs Colorado Rockies 5.77

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