Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs Pick For 9/19/2024

• Date: September 19, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals
  • Javier Assad - Cubs

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs face off against the Washington Nationals on September 19, 2024, both teams are set to kick off their series at Wrigley Field. The Cubs, with a record of 77-75, have been treading water this season, while the Nationals are struggling with a 68-84 record. With Chicago's dwindling playoff hopes, every game is crucial. Meanwhile, Washington is playing for pride at this point.

On the mound, the Cubs will start Javier Assad, a right-hander with a solid 3.27 ERA this year. Despite his success, his peripheral stats indicate some luck, suggesting he might regress. Assad ranks as the #209 starting pitcher in MLB, and while that doesn't shine, he’s been effective in securing victories with a 7-5 record. However, his low strikeout rate could be a concern against a Nationals lineup that's one of the hardest to strike out, ranking 5th in least strikeouts.

The Nationals counter with Patrick Corbin, whose 5.45 ERA paints a grim picture, but a lower xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky. Corbin's challenges are compounded by facing a Cubs offense ranked 12th in Power Rankings, which is slightly better than their season rank. While Chicago ranks 19th in home runs, they boast a strong base-running game, ranking 6th in stolen bases.

Betting odds favor the Cubs significantly, with a moneyline of -180, translating to a 62% implied win probability. Backing this, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Cubs a 61% chance to win. The Cubs' offense is projected to score an impressive 5.41 runs, leveraging their home-field advantage against a Nationals bullpen ranked 26th, which aligns with their overall poor performance this season.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Recording 92 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Patrick Corbin checks in at the 75th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joey Gallo has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Javier Assad has used his sinker 5.5% more often this season (35.3%) than he did last season (29.8%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

In terms of his batting average, Seiya Suzuki has experienced some positive variance this year. His .278 mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .237.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.5% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 63 games at home (+14.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 51 away games (+7.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+12.70 Units / 59% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.49 vs Chicago Cubs 5.58

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.