Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves Prediction For 8/25/2024

• Date: August 25, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • DJ Herz - Nationals
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face off against the Washington Nationals on August 25, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams, albeit for different reasons. The Braves currently sit with a record of 70-59, enjoying an above-average season, while the Nationals are struggling at 58-72, having a disappointing year. This matchup marks the third game in their series, and the Braves are riding high after winning their last game.

On the mound, Reynaldo Lopez takes the hill for the Braves, boasting an impressive 2.05 ERA this season, which ranks him as the 66th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Lopez has started 20 games this year, with a solid 7-4 record. However, his 3.72 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky, which could indicate potential challenges ahead. He projects to allow 2.4 earned runs over an average of 5.2 innings, but his tendency to give up 4.8 hits and 1.6 walks per game could be concerning against a Nationals lineup that ranks 21st in overall offensive production.

DJ Herz, the projected starter for the Nationals, has had a rough season with a 4.15 ERA and a 2-6 record over 13 starts. Despite his average projections, he may have been unlucky, as indicated by his favorable SIERA and xERA metrics. However, he will need to step up significantly against a Braves offense that ranks 13th in MLB and has shown the ability to hit home runs, ranking 10th overall.

With the Braves listed as significant favorites with a moneyline of -185, they are expected to capitalize on their home field advantage at Truist Park. The Braves have an implied team total of 4.57 runs, while the Nationals sit at just 3.43 runs. Given the current form of both teams and the pitching matchup, Atlanta looks poised to continue their winning ways in this critical division clash.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

In his previous start, DJ Herz turned in a great performance and compiled 7 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Joey Gallo has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 16.9 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly deflated relative to his 26.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Washington Nationals bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Reynaldo Lopez is expected to post an average of 5.7 strikeouts in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Ramon Laureano is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Michael Harris II hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 109 games (+29.10 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 70 of their last 124 games (+9.23 Units / 6% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 40 games (+12.90 Units / 27% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.23 vs Atlanta Braves 5.39

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