Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks Pick & Prediction – 7/31/2024

Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: July 31, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Washington Nationals on July 31, 2024, at Chase Field, both teams are looking to improve their standings in a National League matchup. The Diamondbacks, with a record of 55-51, are having an above-average season, while the Nationals, at 49-57, are struggling to find consistency.

The D-Backs will send right-hander Zac Gallen to the mound. Gallen has been a reliable force for Arizona, and his ability to limit walks and generate strikeouts will be crucial against a Nationals offense that ranks 18th in team batting average and 29th in home runs. In contrast, the Nationals will counter with left-hander MacKenzie Gore. Gore will face a D-Backs offense that ranks 7th in team batting average, 16th in home runs, and 17th in stolen bases, making them a well-rounded threat.

Arizona's offensive prowess is highlighted by Ketel Marte, who has been on fire over the past week. Marte has played in five games, recording six hits, six runs, nine RBIs, and three home runs, boasting a .429 batting average and an impressive 1.617 OPS. Meanwhile, Washington's Juan Yepez has also been productive, playing in six games with eight hits, four runs, eight RBIs, and one home run, maintaining a .348 batting average and a .955 OPS.

The game marks the third in the series between these two teams, adding an extra layer of intrigue as they battle for bragging rights. Both teams will look to capitalize on their strengths, with Arizona's balanced offense and Washington's speed on the basepaths, ranking 3rd in team stolen bases.

Overall, the Diamondbacks appear to have the upper hand, thanks to their above-average season and strong offensive performance. However, the Nationals' ability to steal bases and disrupt the rhythm of opposing pitchers could make for an interesting contest. Keep an eye on Gallen's control and Gore's ability to navigate a potent D-Backs lineup as this series reaches its climax.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore has utilized his change-up 6% more often this year (8.9%) than he did last season (2.9%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Jacob Young has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.6-mph dropping to 79.7-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Washington Nationals (20.2 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone team of batters on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

When it comes to his home runs, Randal Grichuk has suffered from bad luck this year. His 10.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 23.9.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen profiles as the 4th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+13.05 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 100 games (+8.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 18 games (+6.70 Units / 28% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.08 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.13

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