Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Prediction – 5/26/2025

As the Texas Rangers prepare to face off against the Toronto Blue Jays on May 26, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling this season, each hovering around the .500 mark with records of 26-28 and 25-27, respectively. This matchup is crucial for both sides as they seek to gain momentum and improve their standings, but neither team is currently in contention for a playoff spot.

In their most recent outing, the Blue Jays suffered a tough loss, which could impact their morale heading into this game. The Rangers will send Jacob deGrom to the mound, who has been performing at an elite level with a 2.33 ERA and a 4-1 record this season. Although he has been fortunate in some metrics, his ability to strike out batters at a 27.7% rate gives him an edge against a Blue Jays offense that ranks as the 2nd least strikeout-prone in MLB.

On the other hand, Kevin Gausman will take the ball for Toronto. Gausman has been slightly above average this season with a 4.03 ERA and a 4-4 record. However, projections indicate he may be due for improvement, as he has been somewhat unlucky in his appearances thus far.

The Rangers' offense has struggled overall, ranking 27th in MLB, particularly in batting average. They do, however, show some power, ranking 13th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays, though more balanced, rank poorly in power, sitting 25th in home runs.

With the Rangers favored at -155, bettors might find value in their strong pitching matchup against a Blue Jays lineup that has not been able to capitalize on its strengths. As the game total sits at a low 7.5 runs, expect a tightly contested battle in Arlington.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Kevin Gausman was in good form in his previous game started and allowed 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Typically, bats like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Jacob deGrom.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Toronto Blue Jays bats as a unit have been among the best in the league this year (9th-) when assessing their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Considering that flyball pitchers hold a notable advantage over flyball bats, Jacob deGrom and his 38.3% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable spot in today's game going up against 2 opposing FB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Marcus Semien is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's game, Josh Jung is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.9% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games (+13.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.50 Units / 40% ROI)
• Nathan Lukes has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 away games (+13.50 Units / 150% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.01, Texas Rangers 4.21

• Date: May 26, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Jacob deGrom - Rangers

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